CBAM and Turkey: Europe's Largest Steel Exporter Faces EUR 8B+ Carbon Border Tax
Turkey exports more steel to the EU than any other country — 3–5 million tonnes per year. At current ETS prices and default values, Turkey's annual CBAM exposure exceeds EUR 8 billion. Turkish EAF producers with actual emissions of 0.50–0.70 tCO2/t can save EUR 96–110/t.
Turkey CBAM Exposure by Sector
| Sector | Key companies | EU export volume | Saving at actual vs default |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steel (EAF dominant) | Erdemir, Kardemir, İsdemir, Tosyalı, Çolakoğlu | 3,000,000–5,000,000 t/year | EUR 96–110/t (EAF at 0.50–0.70 tCO2/t) |
| Aluminium (secondary) | Assan Alüminyum, Asaş | 200,000–500,000 t/year | EUR 759–784/t (secondary at 0.40–0.80 tCO2/t) |
| Cement | Çimsa, Akçansa, Lafarge Turkey | 500,000–1,000,000 t/year | EUR 4–26/t |
Turkish ETS: Future Partial Offset
Turkey is developing its own Emissions Trading System (Turkish ETS) under the Climate Law (Law No. 7339). The Turkish ETS is expected to become operational in 2026–2027. Once operational, Turkish manufacturers paying Turkish ETS costs may be eligible for a partial CBAM deduction under Article 9 — but only with verified documentation of ETS compliance costs. The Turkish ETS price is expected to start at TRY 100–200/tCO2 (approximately EUR 3–6/tCO2) — significantly below the EU ETS price.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Turkey's total annual CBAM exposure?
Turkey's annual CBAM exposure exceeds EUR 8 billion across steel, aluminium, and cement — based on current export volumes and EU default values. Turkish EAF steel producers documenting actual values can reduce this significantly.
Does Turkey have a carbon price eligible for CBAM deduction?
Not yet. Turkey is developing its own ETS (Turkish ETS) which may provide a partial CBAM deduction in future. Currently, Turkish manufacturers pay the full CBAM certificate cost with no deduction.
What is Turkey's grid emission factor?
Turkey's national grid emission factor is approximately 0.45 tCO2/MWh — lower than South Africa or India due to a more diversified energy mix including hydro, natural gas, and growing renewables.
Which Turkish steel companies face the highest CBAM exposure?
Erdemir (ArcelorMittal), Kardemir, İsdemir, Tosyalı, and Çolakoğlu are Turkey's major EU steel exporters. All face significant CBAM exposure from 2026.
Where can Turkish manufacturers find ISO 14065 accredited CBAM verifiers?
See the Turkey verifier directory at /verification-directory/turkey/ for TÜRKAK ISO 14065 accredited CBAM verification firms.
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